Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election popular vote by 4 percent. Maybe.
That’s the prediction of Alan Abramowitz, the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University. Abramowitz presented his nationally famous presidential predictive model Thursday, Sept. 15, to a packed Cole Auditorium on Georgia State University’s Clarkston Campus.
Abramowitz visited the college at the invitation of social science professors Bob King and Marc Zayac of Clarkston Campus and the Clarkston History and Politics Club. Abramowitz has correctly predicted the national popular vote since the year 2000.
His talk was in recognition of U.S. Constitution Day Sept. 17 and moderated by HAP club president Sheen Atwa and Clarkston Student Government vice president Alexandr Burkon. Atwa and Burkon also fielded questions and tweets from the audience at Clarkston and the live-streamed event at the Newton Campus.
Using data from present and past polls on the nation’s voting habits, Abramowitz built his case for why and how voters would vote in the election Nov. 8. “The stakes are high … whoever is in office will present dramatic differences in public policy.”
Acknowledging the divisive political tone of the 2016 election between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Abramowitz noted that his model shows few people straying from their traditional parties over the past several presidential elections. Some people, however, would not say if they are Republican or Democrat in public, said Abramowitz. “We have a lot of closet partisans,” he said.
“Over the years I have seen a great deal of (party) voter consistency. And we know by research that a large majority of independents (who identify with an independent candidate) eventually will vote toward one [major] party. Currently, independent candidates are Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (The Green Party.)
Abramowitz noted that there has not been a landslide victory for any candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
Despite or maybe because of the deep partisanship of the country, voter turnout will be good, he said. “I predict a record of more than 60 percent of the voter turnout--and that’s good news for Democrats,” he said. He explained that Democrats currently have more money to spend on ads and get-out-the vote efforts; the Trump campaign has lagged behind in fundraising for ads and on-the-ground campaign efforts.
Abramowitz added that, besides the presidential post, there are currently 435 House of Representatives seats, 34 U.S. Senate seats and 12 governorships that will be voted on in this November’s election.